Groundhog Day

Herend Groundhog Black Fishnet Figurine

Happy Groundhog Day from unseasonably cold Florida. Here's hoping for an early spring.
 

In Punxsutawney, 1886 marked the first time that Groundhog Day appeared in the local newspaper. The following year brought the first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob. Each year since then has seen a steady increase in participation of the celebration from people all over the world.

It is the day that the Groundhog comes out of his hole after a long winter sleep to look for his shadow.

If he sees it, he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his hole.

If the day is cloudy and, hence, shadowless, he takes it as a sign of spring and stays above ground.

Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions are generally inaccurate, with an overall success rate of roughly 35% to 40% based on analyses from Stormfax and the NOAA. Data suggests the groundhog has predicted "six more weeks of winter" over 100 times, which is frequently incorrect, as spring-like conditions often arrive sooner. 

Overall Record: Since 1887, Phil has predominantly seen his shadow, forecasting a longer winter, with an accuracy rate cited between 35% and 39%.

Recent Trends: Over the past decade, Phil has been accurate only about 40% of the time, notes NOAA.

Frequency: Phil has seen his shadow 109 times compared to 21 times with no shadow (with 9 years not recorded), meaning he forecasts more winter over 80% of the time.

Scientific Validity: Studies show no consistent correlation between the groundhog's shadow and the actual arrival of spring weather.