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| Herend Groundhog Black Fishnet Figurine |
In Punxsutawney, 1886 marked the first time that Groundhog Day appeared in the local newspaper. The following year brought the first official trek to Gobbler’s Knob. Each year since then has seen a steady increase in participation of the celebration from people all over the world.
It is the day that the Groundhog comes out of his hole after a long winter sleep to look for his shadow.
If he sees it, he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his hole.
If the day is cloudy and, hence, shadowless, he takes it as a sign of spring and stays above ground.
Punxsutawney Phil's weather predictions are generally inaccurate, with an overall success rate of roughly 35% to 40% based on analyses from Stormfax and the NOAA. Data suggests the groundhog has predicted "six more weeks of winter" over 100 times, which is frequently incorrect, as spring-like conditions often arrive sooner.
Overall Record: Since 1887, Phil has predominantly seen his shadow, forecasting a longer winter, with an accuracy rate cited between 35% and 39%.
Recent Trends: Over the past decade, Phil has been accurate only about 40% of the time, notes NOAA.
Frequency: Phil has seen his shadow 109 times compared to 21 times with no shadow (with 9 years not recorded), meaning he forecasts more winter over 80% of the time.
Scientific Validity: Studies show no consistent correlation between the groundhog's shadow and the actual arrival of spring weather.
Update - Phil has predicted 6 more weeks of winter - hopefully he is wrong as usual - LOL.
Happy Ground Hog Day, Beth. We've also had unusual weather here in the SF bay area; very little rain. The forecast is there will be some rain starting this Saturday, and into next week. I certainly hope so, as I do not want a drought.
ReplyDeleteFun column! Did it snow in Tampa? Do you still have some winter clothes in Florida?
ReplyDeleteYes - Gulf effect snow in Tampa and environs last night and yes I kept all of my winter clothing.
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